Twelve club members draw lots where one hosts a monthly dinner for everyone. How many dinners does a specific member host in a year________?
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Answer: D. Cannot be determined
Explanation
Drawing lots for each monthly dinner represents an independent random selection event occurring repeatedly over time. Probability theory dictates that past random draws do not restrict or guarantee outcomes in future monthly drawings. Because every draw is completely random, the exact number of times a specific member will be chosen cannot be predicted. Random lotteries ensure that every participant has an equal chance of selection during each independent drawing. Predictable outcomes cannot be determined in advance when events are governed purely by random chance. Probability measures likelihood over many trials rather than guaranteeing specific results in a finite sample.
Option A assumes a fixed single occurrence, which incorrectly treats a random variable as a deterministic certainty. Option B assumes the member will never be chosen, ignoring the positive probability of selection in random draws. Option C assumes a specific repeat frequency, which contradicts the independent random nature of the monthly lots.
- Subject
- Mathematics
- Category
- Mathematics
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- —
- Difficulty
- medium
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